Creating Open Shots from Beyond the Arc

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28)    Quick Takeaways 0.194 correlation between open three pointers and 3FG% The Rockets, Celtics, and Cavaliers are among the leaders in open three point frequency   In today’s NBA, three pointers are valued more than the mid range jumper. However, recklessly shooting threes can hinder offensive performance and ball movement.… Read More Creating Open Shots from Beyond the Arc

Predicting the Next Year’s Worth of Baseball Hall of Famers

Written by Scott Steinberg Increasingly publicized voting ballots, heated debates over social media, and a seemingly higher frequency of controversial Curt Schilling tweets mean that the release of the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2017 is here. This voting season’s significance is marked by the final year of Tim Raines’s voting eligibility, the first… Read More Predicting the Next Year’s Worth of Baseball Hall of Famers

Bootstrapping Expected Goal Coefficients (Part Two)

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28) Quick Takeaways: There appears to be significant coefficient variability in the angle and rebound coefficients from 2007-08 through 2015-16 using bootstrap analysis The distance and rush coefficient remain relatively stable across seasons This suggests that current expected goal (xG) models could be biased if trained on coefficients from past seasons In the… Read More Bootstrapping Expected Goal Coefficients (Part Two)

Clustering NBA Teams by Shot Selection

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28) Shot selection, which includes any field goal attempt from a layup to a three pointer, is a vital component to the game of basketball. NBA teams that consistently take open or high percentage shots around the basket will likely have an advantage over their competition. Teams should also play to their strengths.… Read More Clustering NBA Teams by Shot Selection

Are NHL Expected Goal Models Biased? (Part One)

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28) Quick Takeaways: There is potential evidence that the rebound and rush coefficients in logistic regression models for expected goals (xG) shifted across seasons The distance and angle coefficients for xG models did not differ significantly from 2008-09 through 2015-16, though there appears to be a slow, upward shift Significant changes… Read More Are NHL Expected Goal Models Biased? (Part One)